We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs.

In this paper, we propose a random gradient-free method for optimization in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces, applicable to functional optimization in diverse settings. Though such problems are often solved through finite-dimensional gradient descent over a parametrization of the functions, such as neural networks, an interesting alternative is to instead perform gradient descent directly in the function space by leveraging its Hilbert space structure, thus enabling provable guarantees and fast convergence. However, infinite-dimensional gradients are often hard to compute in practice, hindering the applicability of such methods. To overcome this limitation, our framework requires only the computation of directional derivatives and a pre-basis for the Hilbert space domain, i.e., a linearly-independent set whose span is dense in the Hilbert space. This fully resolves the tractability issue, as pre-bases are much more easily obtained than full orthonormal bases or reproducing kernels -- which may not even exist -- and individual directional derivatives can be easily computed using forward-mode scalar automatic differentiation. We showcase the use of our method to solve partial differential equations à la physics informed neural networks (PINNs), where it effectively enables provable convergence.

Refining low-resolution (LR) spatial fields with high-resolution (HR) information, often known as statistical downscaling, is challenging as the diversity of spatial datasets often prevents direct matching of observations. Yet, when LR samples are modeled as aggregate conditional means of HR samples with respect to a mediating variable that is globally observed, the recovery of the underlying fine-grained field can be framed as taking an inverse of the conditional expectation, namely a deconditioning problem. In this work, we propose a Bayesian formulation of deconditioning which naturally recovers the initial reproducing kernel Hilbert space formulation from Hsu and Ramos (2019). We extend deconditioning to a downscaling setup and devise efficient conditional mean embedding estimator for multiresolution data. By treating conditional expectations as inter-domain features of the underlying field, a posterior for the latent field can be established as a solution to the deconditioning problem. Furthermore, we show that this solution can be viewed as a two-staged vector-valued kernel ridge regressor and show that it has a minimax optimal convergence rate under mild assumptions. Lastly, we demonstrate its proficiency in a synthetic and a real-world atmospheric field downscaling problem, showing substantial improvements over existing methods.

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITEs) by capturing unobserved heterogeneity in treatment response driven by latent risk factors that affect only outcomes. CDVAE comes with theoretical guarantees on valid latent adjustment and generalization bounds for ITE error. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that CDVAE outperforms baselines, and that state-of-the-art models greatly improve when augmented with its latent substitutes, approaching oracle performance without access to true adjustment variables. The second contribution proposes an efficient framework for long-term counterfactual regression based on RNNs enhanced with Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) and InfoMax. It captures long-range dependencies under time-varying confounding while avoiding the computational cost of transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results and introducing CPC into causal inference. The third contribution advances CRL by addressing how latent causes manifest in observed variables. We introduce a model-agnostic interpretability layer based on the geometry of the decoder Jacobian. A sparse self-expression prior induces modular, possibly overlapping groups of observed features aligned with shared latent influences. We provide recovery guarantees in both disjoint and overlapping settings and show that meaningful latent-to-observed structure can be recovered without anchor features or single-parent assumptions. Scalable Jacobian-based regularization techniques are also developed.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Uplift modeling is aimed at estimating the incremental impact of an action on an individual's behavior, which is useful in various application domains such as

The EM algorithm is one of the most popular algorithm for inference in latent data models. The original formulation of the EM algorithm does not scale to large data set, because the whole data set is required at each iteration of the algorithm. To alleviate this problem, Neal and Hinton [1998] have proposed an incremental version of the EM (iEM) in which at each iteration the conditional expectation of the latent data (E-step) is updated only for a mini-batch of observations. Another approach has been proposed by Capp e and Moulines [2009] in which the E-step is replaced by a stochastic approximation step, closely related to stochastic gradient. In this paper, we analyze incremental and stochastic version of the EM algorithm as well as the variance reduced-version of [Chen et al., 2018] in a common unifying framework. We also introduce a new version incremental version, inspired by the SAGA algorithm by Defazio et al. [2014]. We establish non-asymptotic convergence bounds for global convergence. Numerical applications are presented in this article to illustrate our findings.

Despite the existence of many applied scenarios where the relationship between a pair changes, change point methods specifically designed for paired data are quite scarce.

Uplift modeling is aimed at estimating the incremental impact of an action on an individual's behavior, which is useful in various application domains such as